Trade War

What do you think about the upcoming trade war between the US and the rest of the world ( EU, China, Canada, ... )?? Do you think that it will lead to next big economical crisis? Who do you think will break first? My bet is that the USA will get #rekt.

Another recession is forecasted within the next two years. Besides those things being cyclical and the fearmongering over the fed and debt. The US will have to once again work magic to keep the financial system going. No one at this point in time would benefit from a destroyed consumer market in America except maybe the Russians and Iranians. Iran for animus, and Russia for negotiating in Europe. All the "trade war" is going to do is develop a need for moving of supply chains in country. This will allow the countries that can pull this off to move more freely when it comes negotiation time during the next economic crisis because they're not bringing the baggage of their partners with them. All Trump has done is accelerate the proposed US policy of reducing expenditures in foreign countries. The goal being continued power projection but pulling us out of maintaining some of the more tedious areas. The Middle East being the obvious exception. And Korea being the most prominent example. Assuming the tariffs go full force and aren't negotiated away then some degree of the following will occur. The US will chug along as normal, people involved in the consumer industry are going to be hit. Boomers, Silicon Valley Tech Workers, and normal users with a lot of pocket change are going to be the hardest hit. Boomers for their bad stock choices. Silicon Valley for the pain on their supply chain, the inevitable intellectual property theft, and their product prices will skyrocket. This being one of the most prominent reasons as to why we haven't real sanctions or tariffs on China since the Reagan-Clinton years. Rich normal users will be hit because non-essential goods will become incredibly expensive and they'll be at a loss for their current lifestyles. This is where any tv-worthy discontent will come from. Canada isn't foolish enough to burn bridges with the US and still has to follow our lead unless they can work out a way to have China, Europe, and another supplant the hole of the US in their economy they'll do what they're told. The EU has more on its plate than a proposed trade war from the US but if Trump plans to attack the basis of their union that could be a death pact between the two. And this is the effect on the Western World in practice if every country goes all in on tariffing one another. The EU is the market for the US and the US is both protector and producer for many EU countries. It would be suicide for the both of us. Most of Western Europe would be groveling to the Russians to lower the cost of natural gas for power production.they won't Map wise in the US we hit our service economy hard, causing much of the current middle class to become unemployed while opening up labor jobs for people on welfare, it gives us a shot at reopening production centers in the US and we can give ourselves a political out in Europe by putting in leaders who might want to request our bases gone. The relocation would cost money, but in the long run we'd save money not being the armed forces of half of the EU. All in all it doesn't matter who breaks first, if it happens it does, if it doesn't the world continues on as it did yesterday and today. Should it happen he accelerates and accentuates an economic crisis causing discontentment in the short term and a possible delay or cushion to the next one.

I predict US and the EU will break the hardest, if not first. I'm undecided about China. On the one hand they are severely leveraged and on the other very aware of how leveraged they are. A command economy like China's can make unilateral decisions about what to do, but the Chinese government has to live with slower growth as a consequence. I think they'll come out on top of the coming recession, though. They've been surprisingly entrepreneurial and resilient so far.

The thing that bothers me is that I see my coworkers and friends all smiles and having a good time. I personally am going to do everything I can to clear out my debt before 2020, but I know how useless it will be to tell anyone else. I have no background in economics so they have no reason to believe me. They'll shrug and say "Oh well..." at best. Some of them seem to sense what is coming as well, but there's a general resignation to it.

>>11183 I think student debt will be one of the most interesting bubbles to deal with in the US. I am curious as to whether we will see some hand waving tactics and another magic $16 trillion appear to keep everything alive. Then again, the $16 trillion was in 2008, i can only imagine what absurd number they would come up with this time over at the fed.

>>8168 > they'll do what they're told You're in for a shock in the next few years.

>>11184 I have a friend going to school for a medical field. There's no way he's getting out from under that debt in any short-term sense. In addition DeVos just introduced new guidelines to make it harder to get rid of debt from unethical or fraudulent lenders. Based on this I deeply suspect that there will be minimal aid to the student loan area, at best. Of course, I'd be very happy to be wrong.

>Cost of overseas manufacturing goes up >More domestic manufacturing >US workers aren't willing to settle for the low wages/working conditions of overseas workers >Cost of consumer goods goes up >Most people can't afford to buy a new cell phone every year and a new clothing on a whim >People begin repairing their possessions rather than throwing them out. >Revival of mom and pop repair shops. >Increased solidarity among growing american labor class. >Large corporations forced to innovate or die wrt their supply chains and manufacturing costs. >... >America is great again Point being, cheap imports is good for the factory owners but isn't necessarily a good thing for our society. I'm not saying this is exactly how it has to play out, but I'm very interested to see what happens, and I think there is tremendous potential for growth.

>>11203 Corporations are at the stage right now where they're trying to kill the Mom-and-Pop shops. Apple made a deal with Amazon to sell Apple products if in return Amazon would drop third-party parts suppliers (or something to that efffect). Before the return of the Mom-and-Pop, the large corporations will have to wobble a bit first. That might happen in a couple years. I read somewhere that the global debt is 2.5 times global productivity. When debt is higher than income, a recession is on its way. Large corporations won't have as much wiggle room to play games because fewer people will have money to tolerate it. Just a guess on my part, though. I hope there's no recession.

>>11196 It is more or less a pipe dream but IF enough people got together to oppose the system and it was considered an actual threat, the debt would be discharged. Keeping the populace satisfied through any means necessary is important for the current world to continue in the path its going. Its pretty amazing the soykaf people will without voicing their discontent. And no, i do not consider posting online voicing discontent. Its sad that people fail to realize mass movements would work but because the average person has too much to lose, it never happens. It truly will be a long, slow decline into nothingness. >>11204 Indeed lainon, amazon is truly a monster. Some people say its a result of a "free market" or "late stage capitalism" but i think if people really dug down to the core they would find its a result of loopholes and corruption. When mom and pop shops die at the rate they are now, its time to worry. A previous lainon who had their post removed mentioned farms going into bankruptcy left and right. Whats interesting is that this is predicted to only be the beginning and that these bankruptcies will continue to accelerate. GE and GM were once THE kings of their respective fields and now look at them; both facing massive debt, layoffs usually seen during recessions and there is barely cause for concern. The coming correction will hurt, but it is necessary.