2020 and the Free Software movement.

So it's almost confirmed now that we're gonna see an Economic recession sometime in 2020 at this point; The yield curve, a general indicator of economic recession has just inverted, and unless the Fed raises interest rates (which is unlikely since they're still heavily monetarist) this most likely means a recession ranging between the Dot Com Bubble or the Housing Market Crisis, or worse. The only thing up to debate at this point is which industry it will impact, in 2000 it was the DNS industry, in 2008 it was the housing market, so we need to know which industry is causing this lack of return on investment. For those of you who follow a lot of business news, the answer should seem somewhat intuitive: Silicon Valley. Think about it: >Elon Musk and his programs which mostly involve launching cars into space with no material benefit >Netflix, Hulu, and Spotify which are companies that see little to no actual profit due to the prevalence of piracy >Youtube and social media, which rely on selling "marketing data" to other companies, and it goes without saying that the profitability of marketing data itself is extremely questionable, especially data as intrusive and comprehensive and expensive as Google's I'm not saying all of these companies will collapse, just that that's where I see things going based on what I know. So what does that mean for the Free Software movement? Well, it's possible that many of these companies are likely to start either shutting down or adding paywalls. Things that a lot of normal users took for granted in the 2010s might not be so prevalent in the 2020s, because of Silicon Valley's huge reliance on marketing data. The people will get upset, and this is where there's discontent there's opportunity. They'll start wanting answers. How could they do this to us? How could they take away our means of communication? We have the answers. If you think people won't care, just look at historical blackouts and how people responded to them. For the internet, this could mean riots not just in the streets, but in major government campuses. It's time to get political, we have to get into those protests and show people the way of security and freedom. We have only two years to prepare for this, maybe start a blog or try to get into public speaking events that are anti-Silicon Valley. Oh and if you're financially interested, buy put options for Netflix and discord. HOWEVER. Here's the worst case scenario. The recession could be very 2008-like, where the government, knowing the totalitarian value of these data companies, buys out a huge chunk of Silicon Valley. This is where soykaf could actually get Cyberpunk. We're talking about massive DMCA takedowns, maybe even SOPA and PIPA tier government bills. Or worse, ISPs end up merging with data companies too, so you have entire domains (such as this one) being unusable entirely, or simply redirecting to 5 websites (and remember ISPs are allowed to do this now with the sublation of net neutrality). IP laws in general are incompatible with the internet and the free flow of information, so the Corporations and Government might start cooperating to shut that freedom down. You know that hard drive you have full of hentai or furry porn? You might want to fill it with something actually useful. Blockchain technology. Anarchist philosophy, Cybersecurity, any kind of anti-State book imaginable. If 2020 does affect Silicon Valley in the worst way possible, things could really go south. If this happens we'll no longer be fighting against paywalls, but for our very intellectual freedom. DISCLAIMER: I am completely sane and perfectly aware that it's possible none of this will happen. For all I know some other industry could recede in 2020, or the recession might not even be that destructive. This is just mostly conjecture, but it's perfectly compatible with the facts.

My 2 cents: If you have money in mutual funds or are working with a financial advisor for 401(k) and other retirement deals, email them and ask what can be expected if a recession hits. They may try to blow you off or say something to placate you, but if they're honest, you'll know where you stand. If they're not honest, assume the money will be gone once the recession hits. Take stock of all your expenses. Remove the non-essential expenses immediately. For myself, I'm pondering getting rid of my Internet connection. I get unlimited (non-tethered) data on my phone, so I might use that as a modem to connect when I get home from work. I take music lessons, but I think getting rid of that is dangerous since busking may become an alternative income source if necessary. Stockpile food. The 99 Cent stores often have sales on Top Ramen. It's not healthy food, but storing them up now means less grocery shopping later. Get rid of all your debts ASAP. That's top priority. You don't want any money owed once the recession hits. Save as much money as possible. Pare down any expenses and put surplus funds into a savings account. Preferably with a credit union since credit unions don't play the kinds of games that banks do. Remember, there's not a lot to stop the banks from using your money if they have to. It happened in 2008 and the current administration has had a focus on deregulations for a while now. Start lining up alternative job options in case your company downsizes. I've been trying to find out about the COBOL market. I hear that the financial sector is still hungry for programmers as a lot of the old guard are literally dying off from old age. If that's true, I would like to find a way to transition. Personally, I think the financial sector will be relatively solid in this recession. It's mostly businesses that have accrued massive debt and while the financial industry is obviously a group of businesses, I think they're going to do more collecting than paying. I think more will happen in other industries Expect lots more in terms of homeless and jobless. My area already has tents popping up all over the place. There's one building not far from me that used to be an apartment complex. It appears abandoned and some homeless people camp out there at night and put paintings on the fence during the day. Other homeless camp out in tents or just lie in the sun. Lots of mom-and-pop shops are going to close down as well. Who knows where those folks will end up. With regards to promoting an ideology as indicated by OP, I would point out the Red Guard LA in Los Angeles. They're a communist group that has been active in South LA communities for a while now. Over a decade, in fact. I'm no communist, but their tactics are instructive. Rather than push their ideology, they do a lot of work with the community. It builds trust. Then they help the community direct its anger at some person or group. In this way they slowly spread their message (which is basically to overthrow current political norms and institute a communist state). Regardless of whether anyone agrees with their ideology, the template is clear: when the recession hits, people will be lost, scared and angry. Working to comfort and help them must come first, then, when trust is gained, the spreading of ideas begins. It would be best to work with organizations like food banks or shelters or something to that degree. These will put you in contact with people that are looking for help. Once they see that you are helping them, they open their minds to your ideas. Kind of sinister, but if you're looking to spread ideas, that's pretty much how its done. For myself, I've been thinking a lot about oral storytelling. That is, pre-literate cultures built community around telling stories about a variety of things for a variety of occassions. I think building a habit of oral storytelling could be useful to give hope, vent fears and frustrations, and just generally give people something to do together without spending money to do it. Crafting lessons within the stories is common and could be useful for OP's ideas as well as the ideas of others. I'm not sure how I would implement it, but maybe it's a useful idea for everyone else.

Quick addendum: After the 2008 recession, the economy didn't start really recovering until around 2010. That means that it must have stabilized somewhere around 2009-2010. So when the bottom drops out on this one, wait about a year or so and keep an eye on the economic reports. At some point, things will stabilize and it will be a good time to start re-investing. Financial assets such as bonds, mutual funds, etc will be cheap and once the economy starts growing again, you can just sit back and let the value accrue until it's time for another recession. --- I do feel the need to point out that, if all the tools were in place, this recession would be quite survivable. The government would drop interest rates, people would spend less to pay off debts and there would be some easing of financial pressure. It wouldn't a great experience, but it wouldn't be a terrible one. Unfortunately, the government lacks the tools this time around, so this recession is going to hit a lot harder than it normally should. It's going to hit right around election-time as well, so we'll see how that affects things. We're kind of in for a mess.

Did any of this happen during the dot-com bubble?

>>11407 dot com bubble is different though. it was directly related to the over pricing of an actual commodity, while this has to do with SaaS relying on the overpricing of data. once that price drops, they will start adding more paywalls or shut down to survive financially.

Another thing that will definitely get hit are smartphones. There used to be a time when anything other than a flagship phone was a laggy piece of soykaf, but nowadays manufacturers have reached a point where even a 200-400€ mid range phone is good enough for most users. There will be no point in purchasing a 1000€ flagship every year, and the only reason why people can afford to buy expensive gimmick phones with 4 cameras is because we're having extraordinarily good times right now.

>>11403 >Start lining up alternative job options in case your company downsizes. I've been trying to find out about the COBOL market. I hear that the financial sector is still hungry for programmers as a lot of the old guard are literally dying off from old age. If that's true, I would like to find a way to transition. I've been studying Haskell and economics to get into the financial industry. is this stupid? thinking about learning blockchain too. I'm still an undergrad so I don't really have any job market awareness especially in that kind of stuff.

>>11411 I don't think it's stupid. I think the best thing at this point is to find a job that no one with your skill set is looking at and investigate the possibility of doing that. The whole Cobol thing came up because a lot of programmers want to go to the cool jobs, which happen to be in the cloud and data segments of the industry. Cobol isn't considered cool, so no one is looking at that field. At the same time, mainframes are still active in the financial industry, which means that Cobol programmers are needed to maintain them. Most of those programmers are so old they're literally dying off. That's why I'm looking into it. I could be very wrong on this, but I've already aged out the other segments. Unless you're in your 20s or have a strong resume, you can forget about getting into companies like Google.

I wonder if there is potential value in buying or finding used and/or discarded smartphones. As people have less money to spend there will be value in repairs and replacements. In addition, maybe these discarded phones can be used as some kind of ad-hoc cluster for cheap and portable computing power.

>>11401 >Elon Musk and his programs which mostly involve launching cars into space with no material benefit They needed to launch something for the first Falcon Heavy launch, why not a car? They've also had 60 other successful, commercial launches and just reused a booster for the third time. For the first time in a long time there's some competition and innovation going on in that market. As for Tesla, they've hit a production rate of 1000 units/day on the Model 3. So they're now (finally) getting up to speed. Wish people would stop soykafting on other people that are doing new things.

>>11415 >why not a car? they could have launched thousands of cubesats instead of that dumb ass car.

>>11417 But now there's A fuarrrkING CAR in space! Why can't anyone else seem to understand how beautiful and perfectly silly this is? Purity and efficiency are born of the mindset of petroculture. If we wish to have some kind of nice future, getting there will require much more of this kind of play - Wasteful and hypocritical, without being cynical, harmful, or violent.

>>11418 >>11415 it's neoliberal optimists like you that are the reason this country will collapse.

>>11419 >neoliberal Now now, let's not say things we can't take back. I've been called a lot of things online, but this is a first. Never been so disgustingly offended in my entire life... Now as for the country collapsing.. can't happen soon enough!

I think your op post is a faulty premise. As is a lot of financial news, though. Many things in this last year have happened for the first time since 2007 and even earlier. You are predicting a lot based on so little. That said, I agree that its nice to make your voice heard when you want to change things in the world. Congress has a list of bills on their website you can call about, grass roots campaigns, donating to groups who have lobbying power like EFF. All ways of making a change. I see everyone talking about moving to cryptocurrency and it sounds cool but then I've seen so many problems occur with the software and how greedy the devs are and I just wonder to myself whether such a thing can ever be reasonably secure from a software perspective and also from a capital flight perspective.

>>11415 >Innovation going on in that market So I came across this post recently: https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughMuskSpam/comments/8x4pei/spacex_a_primer/ I know, it is reddit, and the poster may not be the most unbiased person there is, but it made me think a lot about how we tend to worship these techno-billionaires, and how little innovation they actually do, and how much of their funding does not come from "the free market", but rather enormous government grants. The obsession we seem to have with people like Musk, Jobs, even Gates has really been creeping me out recently, and I think it's related to the point of the original OP in a way that I can't quite articulate. What I am sure of is that technology *will* become more and more political as it all turns to soykaf. You could say it has always been political (the free software movement wasn't born yesterday after all), but this time the ideological dimension of technology is entering the public mind. Finally, all the doomsday prophecies that Stallman, the FSF, the EFF, Mozilla and co. have been warning us against for literally decades in some cases will come to pass. People will want answers, they will want alternatives and that is when we will have to be ready to give it to them. It's mostly anecdotal, but recently I came across one of these magazines aimed at Entrepreneurs, financial types, medium-sized business owners etc. The cover was about how you could "degoogle" your life as well as your business, and offering alernatives like Signal, ProtonMail, Tuotana etc. It's certainly not the first time that the press talks about that, they like to bash on Google and the like from time to time, but it's the first time that I have seen it make the cover of a "serious magazine for serious businessmen". Here in France, we even have terms like GAFAM (Google Amazon Facebook Apple Microsoft) and NATU (Netflix AirBnB Tesla Uber) to talk about these companies and the efects they have on society.

1. SpaceX is a private company. It's just Elon Musk risking his money. 2. Netflix, Hulu, and Spotify don't makeup an essential industry. 3. Marketing is like the media industry, not the housing industry.

>>11418 being silly is nice if you're not wasting huge amounts of resources to do it.

>>11430 But like I said, `wasting resources' only makes sense in the mindspace of efficient/sustainable/scarcity driven petroculture. In a truly ecological future, nothing is harmed and nothing is lost. The current umbrella we find ourselves under isn't bad for it"s pleasures, it's that it isn't nearly pleasurable enough. The relevant hope then is that we can utilize the coming downturn to help get us closer to this anarchic future, and not the owellian hell OP fears. Art (like Elon"s space car) is what helps get us there, and we desperately need more of it - Even if it can only be done `wastefully' at present.

>>11432 >The current umbrella we find ourselves under isn't bad for it"s pleasures, it's that it isn't nearly pleasurable enough. What we need is not "pleasure" but freedom from isolation. That's the only pleasure any human in the first world doesn't have access to.

>>11415 >>11418 >>11419 We just need to embrace technology without loosing what's make a society working; keep our traditions, cultures and believes. Not in a natsoc way, more like Futurism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurism)

Just as a general FYI, CNN published an article in which former Federal Rrserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted a "painful" market correction and brought up the risk of stagflation (high inflation + high unemployment) https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/18/business/alan-greenspan-stock-market-party-over/index.html Greenspan has his faults, but as the longest running Fed chairman, his words carry some weight, I think.

>>11813 >keep our traditions, cultures, and believes which of course are your traditions, cultures, and beliefs.

>>11823 Also worth noting from the referenced wikipedia article on Futurism: >It emphasized speed, technology, youth, violence, and objects such as the car, the airplane, and the industrial city >They repudiated the cult of the past and all imitation, praised originality, "however daring, however violent" It might be notable that Futurism more or less lost relevancy after WWI, when adherents of Futurism went off to war and either died or came back traumatized and disillusioned.

>>11813 We just need to embrace technology without loosing what's make a society working; keep our traditions, cultures and believes. Society does not work and cannot work. Cultures and traditions do not either. Those are outdated ideas that only serve the upper class that controlled the ignorant underclasses with so called culture. This entire society and culture is a rigged system to promote ignorance and exploitation. The problem does not lie in the fact that we couldnt fix things, but that the majority of people are ignorant and arrogant in their blind consumerist lifestyle. Its like a herd panicking and running towards the cliff and everyone who doesnt run fast enough gets trammpled. In this world it seems most people have aquired their wealth and status by blind exploitation and sabotage of opponents. Society and culture and everything else in the modern world is game theory applied. Ultimately it is the rich and powerful who will end up with the resources to survive while the idiotic masses will make a mess like rats leaving a sinking ship and will trample each other and destroy not only one another but also all the things they can get their hands on.

>>11836 I live this reality daily when trying to ride my bicycle on a 6 lane interstate. Amen. It is time we rowed this boat ashore.

OP is wrong. The cause are: >Student loans in the US. Less jobs = less people working = less people paying their student debts. >Car loans. Exactly like the housing market. Banks allow almost anyone to buy a huge expensive car. But I'm not a guru: it's just my opinion. I can be wrong tho. Netflix/Spotify are making a huge profit too idk why OP think they do not.

Just as quick update, CNN is reporting that investors are jumping on companies to get rid of their debt before a slowdown starts. Some of the larger companies are diverting as much as 37% of their cash flow to paying back debts. The article says there's no word on smaller companies. We may be looking at a scenario where the big companies weather the storm and consolidate the smaller companies. One of the posts in this thread mentioned this outcome. https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/19/investing/corporate-debt-recession/index.html In addition, the Fed just announced a rate hike of a range of 2.25% to 2.5% while the President continues to lecture against doing so https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/19/business/federal-reserve-december-rate-hike/index.html All three major stock indices turned negative on the news.

>>11847 student loans makes a lot of sense actually. UK and the US have the biggest private debt / GDP ratios of all first world countries.

OP, are you still working on doing something to take advantage of or exploit the upcoming economic slowdown/recession?

>>11930 >not buying gold/silver coins >not buying solid non-meme crypto >not buying non-perishable food for 6 months >not buying gun/ammo literally all you can do is diversify your investments and hope for the best but expect the worst even during dot com bubble pets.com went down while amazon became multi billion dollar business, it's a fuarrrking gamble to be honest

>>11936 >silver coins Why? Silver is incredibly cheap. It's been getting cheaper for years. And it makes sense. In theory silver is a precious metal, but investment use (coins/bars) is less than 10% of total demand these days, 30% is jewellery and over 60% is industrial. Which means it's an industrial metal. Another thing to consider is that most silver is not mined in silver mines, it's basically a by-product from mining copper and other metals so price drop doesn't really affect supply that much. So why would you buy it? Gold I can somewhat understand but silver? Doesn't make sense to me.

>>11939 >industrial metals can't be bought as investments because industrial prices never get higher and that doesn't effect investing coins you will never sell your coins to a jewelry making strictly necklaces and rings, but to imply that rise in silver prices in the industrial purpose scene doesn't rise the price of coins is absurd >>>it's basically a by-product from mining copper and other metals so price drop doesn't really affect supply that much Just because it is a "by-product" as you say it doesn't mean that it is abundant in earth's crust. Supply is affected by amount of it, not how you get it. The "by-product" way of manufacturing you mentioned is just to cut costs, not indicating that supply will always be there.

>>11401 Something useful "anarchist philosophy and anti-state books" whew lad I hate the govt. more than anyone I know but I wouldn't call the literature useful. In general I think your predictions about the future of our economy are pretty spot on. I dont think your predictions about the future of the net (sopa / pipa tier bills) is correct however. If you want to save the net. Start building alternatives

Figured is hop in here since this is one of the few places online i can discuss the market. Todays close after a month of selling is very, very reminiscent of 2008 when there was a large spike in the market (11% i believe) on october 13 2008. I suspect the next trading day we will see a continued rise before selling resumes. I would argue the next recession cycle is finally upon us and quite overdo at that.

>Netflix, Hulu, and Spotify which are companies that see little to no actual profit

>>11952 do you just go around saying "citation needed" to waste everyones time googleing something for you or do you honestly want to get into a discussion?

>>11953 different anon here, but isn't the burden of proof usually on the side of the arguement who stated some "facts"?

>>11960 do you talk like this IRL or are you just an ass online?

>>11960 That is true, but its much more effective to just fact check them rather than ask for a citation without adding anything else to the discussion.

>>11403 Don’t stockpile ramen, stockpile pasta or rice

>>11963 What's the difference?

>>11971 Not the previous lainon, but from my experience, pasta is easily to make and can be stored over longer periods of time than ramen. And with just a few sauces and vegetables, you can make something that is both tasty and easy to make. Rice is the same thing with the longevity. You can stick rice in a rice cooker and forget about it until you need it.

>>11971 if you fact check them on your own, you don't add a comment that is useless to most others

>>11401 >Netflix, Hulu, and Spotify which are companies that see little to no actual profit due to the prevalence of piracy Nonsense, piracy cannot put a dent in the money machine that is netflix. Educate yourself instead of speading soykaf

>>11979 Just look into netflix profit margins you idiot

I just absolutely love how this discussion revolves now around nitpicking something instead of contributing to discussion, real nice

>>11981 Actually, following this discussion has clarified things for me. From the standpoint of an average citizen just above the low-income line in my city, I can see that I don't have much ability to deal with the coming storm. It appears that the economy is not unlike the seasons, very loosely speaking. The upward trend of the market is the summer or spring when harvest (in this case monetary profit) has to be made to survive the fall and winter seasons when the market drops into recession or depression, respectively. Unfortunately, since I and others like me weren't trained in this mindset early on, the chances of building up a storage of wealth for the future is minimal. Aside from getting rid of existing debt, there is little recourse but to hope to find a way to survive the incoming recession or depression as it happens. It's a little absurd that so much of the global economy relies on capitalism and investments, but so few are educated about it. It seems like every business, large or small, should have an employee concerned with investments or economics to build a reservoir of funds to ride out the bad times. OP: maybe that's your Free Software angle. Create a co-op service of some kind to store funds for the community that is rationed out during the bad economic times when people need something extra to stay afloat. Use frees software for everyrhing and use that as a base to peomote free software in the community.

>>12005 seasons are much more predictable than markets. The market catastrophes of today are not the ones of yesterday.

>>11980 >Just look into netflix profit margins you idiot Revenue up 30% profit up 50% this year. What was your point again? https://amigobulls.com/stocks/NFLX/income-statement/quarterly >>11979 >Nonsense, piracy cannot put a dent in the money machine that is netflix. Educate yourself instead of speading soykaf Correct.

>>12019 in past years it was much lower due to full blown piracy now people stopped pirating cuz of privacy concerns and complacency my points still holds tho and volatility of their profit margins proves that

>>12022 copyright.nova.edu/copyright-piracy-entertainment-industries/

>>12022 >my points still holds tho and volatility of their profit margins proves that Netflix profits have done nothing but go up year after year. You'd know that if you actually did 5 seconds of research instead of just making soykaf up. https://amigobulls.com/stocks/NFLX/income-statement/annual

>>12030 >profits == profit margins If you claimed skill into something it shouldn't have been "my search engine skills" because you can't google simple "netflix profit margin chart" >>12028 >copyright.nova.edu/copyright-piracy-entertainment-industries/ >>"entertainment industry at large, accompanying the content producers == netflix" reread the link you posted and rethink if that really applies to service that is half margin away from free services like popcorntime

>>12034 >If you claimed skill into something it shouldn't have been "my search engine skills" Better than your "make soykaf up then throw a tantrum when everyone proves you wrong .... skills".

>>11951 What do you think of Mnuchin's little announcement last week? Pundits were all going off on how it was reminiscent of assurances of liquidity in 2008. Markets got messed up for a little while afterwards. General consensus seems to be that we're heading into a down cycle for sure. In the markets, perception is as important as cycles, so we're guaranteed for a downturn. Whether it is a recession or depression is the question now, I guess.

>>12040 so far it doesn't look too bad? Nothing like the 2007 panic.

>>12038 now shush

>>12048 Someone already posted the stats from an independent source >>12030. If your point had any basis in reality you would have just used that. Photoshopping a fake chart and hoping people will buy it is hilariously pathetic.

>>11401 >You know that hard drive you have full of hentai or furry porn? You might want to encrypt it and make a few backups, since this content will be harder to get.

>>12058 >Photoshopping a fake chart Dude, this claim would be laughable if you were just fuarrrking with me but it is obvious you are purely delusional and wilfully ignorant. Go on, do a PERSONAL search on your own of "netflix profit margin chart" and then come back. What is that? You don't want to burst your bubble and prove yourself wrong? You would rather just make up excuse after excuse and ignore every evidence going your way? http://lmgtfy.com/?q=netflix+profit+margin+chart First link idiot Now shush it

>You know that hard drive you have full of hentai or furry porn? You might want to fill it with something actually useful. Blockchain technology. Anarchist philosophy, Cybersecurity, any kind of anti-State book imaginable. If 2020 does affect Silicon Valley in the worst way possible, things could really go south. If this happens we'll no longer be fighting against paywalls, but for our very intellectual freedom. I've been thinking about what materials I would need to survive in different contingencies a lot lately. I think everyone should probably print out some survival materials, but I'm not quite sure what.

>>12308 this. im not a capitalist but capitalism has taught us that in the event things do go south people will value your hentai and furry porn more than your philosophy books. I once thought about how like probably a majority of the art drawn for our time period is just porn and I wonder if they will talk about it in future art history classes or of it will jjst remain this thing outside of the art world. Its like any other time in history where patrons control what kind of art gets made in majority only the patrons of today are disposable income neets.

>>11401 >If you have money in mutual funds I learned recently that I have a few tens of thousands of dollars between a couple mutual funds that have apparently done pretty well. They were started for me as a child - I knew they existed, but I never thought they'd actually be worth very much. The volatility right now seems crazy (though I'm not very familiar with this stuff, perhaps this is normal) - I've lost and then made back more than $5k in just the last couple weeks. It's been obvious a major crash/lull has been on its way for a while, and I would of course like to cash out and have all this (maybe put it in a CD or something more secure) rather than lose it all. How am I supposed to tell when exactly I should wait to do that? GuixSD master race btw. GNU/Freedom or bust.

>>11401 >where the government, knowing the totalitarian value of these data companies, buys out a huge chunk of Silicon Valley They already do own a huge chunk of Silicon Valley. The companies spy on us, because that's what they were funded to do.

>>12504 is there any actual proof of this? I always figured Google and its subsidiaries make enough money on their own by simply selling marketing data to advertising companies.

>>12599 >I always figured Google and its subsidiaries make enough money on their own by simply selling marketing data to advertising companies. There was a big push under the Bush administration to "downsize government" which was made to seem like it was going to reduce the governments power of the people, which people hailed. However, in order to conduct the same level of operations, private businesses were turned to in order to do the things the government never could. Buying and selling data, collecting intelligence, and even fighting wars were the jobs of non-government corporations working in close partnership with the government. The privatization of weaponized information is merely a product of disillusioned citizens who think the government is the greatest thing to fear. some case studies of interest >Snowden working for a contractor >Blackwater (and all the companies it turned into) >Google doing government contracts >SpaceX launching intelligence satellites >Corporate collaboration and data abuse (any "partner" can buy real time tracking and data records from mobile phones without legitimate legal need about $5 USD per number)

>>12600 >neurosuggesting the private sector isn't more effective than public one

>>12601 >having ideological faith in the free market I mean if you mean in terms of generating revenue and stomping on people, then yeah, it is more efficient.

>>12602 >faith or maybe track record? I mean, all of public sector either employs private to do a proper job or just out of lobbying, we could have that debate the whole day... but to imply that government was ever better at managing their funds that go into some projects over a company is absurd.

>>12665 >>>>>track record

>>12666 Haha xD unabomber haha

>>11403 >busking may become an alternative income source LMAO

>>12665 for most of the 20th century a lot of the economy was planned. top marginal taxes were very high, and corporations were under quite a bit more restraint than they are right now. right now corporations and finance are running free after 40 years of deregulation and self-legislation. if you are in the US, you are living in your free market fantasy right now. that you don't recognize this reality is strictly ideology. some of the dominant things that emerged with deregulation are stagnating consumer technology, proprietary capture of general computing, planned obsolescence, flat wages with regular inflation, and the turning inward of military surveillance and weapons technology. if you ask whether our lives would be better with all of those things or without, what do you think most people would say? you wanted private corporations to have unlimited freedom, and you have it -right now-. your reward is that you now have to get a new cell phone every two years whether it still works or not, and the new one isn't even marginally better than the one it replaced.

Just as a general update, Bloomberg reported last week that a couple Chinese firms have missed certain debt payments. This, combined with some trend data, is allowing the article ti suggest that Chinese companies are experiencing a record number of defaults. Whether this is a China-specific problem or a precursor to something greater is an exercise left to the reader. For what it is worth I spoke to a tax guy some time back who did some handwaving on the idea of a depression, indicating that it was a part of the normal economic cycle and nothing to freak out about. That last part surprised me, but he's been at his job so long, I guess he's seen enough to know how to live with them.

>>12825 >For what it is worth I spoke to a tax guy some time back who did some handwaving on the idea of a depression, indicating that it was a part of the normal economic cycle and nothing to freak out about. I think that's a matter of his own perspective; having worked in finance for a long time, he's always insulated from the effects of the economic collapses. His life didn't change much in 2007, if at all. A much larger group of people still haven't recovered from the last one.

>>12813 >we have a free market Bullsoykaf, regulatory hurdles everywhere prohibit new competition by creating a fixed entry barrier which hurts newcomers a lot more than established near monopolies. What we have is a system where the first one to reach the top closes the door behind him by lobbying for regulatory hurdles and spamming nonsense patents to kill anyone else with. There is nothing free about this. Every relevant market is in control of a few oligarchs and the consolidation process is still ongoing.

>>12828 everything you described are base features of capitalism, the natural endpoint of which is the feudalistic characteristics you mentioned. you have everything you say you want right now and don't realize it. you'll find every rationalization possible to avoid realizing it because doing so is a confession that your ideology stands on quicksand. have a nice day lain

>>12834 >you have everything you say you want right now and don't realize it. you'll find every rationalization possible to avoid realizing it because doing so is a confession that your ideology stands on quicksand. have a nice day lain Different anon here. Are you saying that free market = this environment regardless or just accusing that anon of Regan styl e capitalism?

>>12834 Your argument is equivalent to a corpse is a child cause it's the natural endpoint of a child's development. That's not how you define things.

>>12836 >Are you saying that free market = this environment regardless or just accusing that anon of Regan styl e capitalism? i believe that making a distinction between "crony capitalism" and "just plain free market capitalism" is like saying there's such a distinction as predatory pyramid schemes vs. regular egalitarian pyramid schemes. that notion is one of the purest examples of false dichotomy. >>12837 when discussing systems it's always useful to identify the inputs, outputs, and states. you can't talk economic and political systems without discussing the processes and outcomes. the outcome of a political system's workings is the very reason political discussions evoke strong emotions, because these outcomes are matters of life-or-death. we expect all lainons to consider this and always argue in good faith while visiting this space. there are other forums where shooting ideology from the hip is more acceptable, and lain does not want lainchan to become yet another one of those places.

>>12839 You only focus on the final outcome. You can argue all day whether it's worth it but it's objectively true that multiple stages exist and the first one is quite different to the final one. So when someone says he wants to go back to stage 1 it has a distinct meaning. It's no different to setting up a fresh rig. You know longterm it will turn into trash again but for a short beautiful moment it runs much better again.

>>12843 Is it objectively true? How has this been tested? What are those beautiful moments, and for whom are they beautiful? Capitalism has been given chance after chance to prove that it does not produce the same outcomes, but its history shows that its stages (to use your terms) are a series of similar but intensifying collapses. Another way to understand such a thing is to call it a recursive crisis where the exit case is extinction. Because it's a recurring crisis, it's not only the final outcome (feudalism, extinction, etc.) that is miserable, it's also the process of capitalism acting out these "stages" that is miserable. So, I really disagree that I'm only concerned about the final outcome. Even if you believe that capitalism is an efficient mechanism for using the planet's resources in order to do cool human soykaf, these criticisms are fully valid and inescapable. The things that you particularly like about capitalism are not only possible under capitalism, and when we criticize it we start to see how much better those things you like can be. You can actually have more.

>>12843 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to_fall Long term Capitalism is doomed to fail as industries become unprofitable and investment simply stops as predicted by Marx and shown by pic related (Note that this is the average rate of profit across all industries, some industries may have higher ROP's